The upcoming Sunday runoff election in France will determine whether the far-right National Rally secures a majority in Parliament, allowing them to name a prime minister and shape domestic policy. However, tactical alliances by centrists and the left may prevent this outcome, leading to a hung Parliament with political paralysis. President Macron’s decision to call the elections backfired, resulting in unprecedented tension and violence on the campaign trail. The alliance between centrists and the left has successfully decreased the probability of the far-right gaining a majority, but also presents challenges for France’s political stability and international standing. An anti-immigrant, eurosceptic government led by the National Rally could redefine France’s policies and relationships with the EU and Russia. The far-right’s increasing popularity among youth and disadvantaged groups reflects a shift in public sentiment away from Macron’s progressive promises. Ultimately, regardless of the election outcome, the National Rally is expected to gain more influence, potentially reshaping the political landscape in France. The current political turmoil and uncertainty highlight the challenges facing France in the upcoming election and beyond.
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