The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a dire warning about the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, predicting between 17 to 25 named tropical cyclones this year, the most ever forecasted in May. The agency also forecasts eight to 13 of the named storms to become hurricanes, with four to seven of those potentially becoming major hurricanes. This highly active season is attributed to the unprecedented conditions expected, including record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic and a potential La Niña weather pattern.
Experts, including those from universities and private companies, are predicting a likelihood of 14 or more named storms this season, with many forecasts calling for over 20 storms. NOAA states there is an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season. The agency typically issues an updated forecast in August.
The warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic provide additional fuel for storm formation, with the waters hotter than they were before last year’s hurricane season, which saw 20 named storms. The upcoming hurricane season is expected to be highly active due to the combination of warm ocean temperatures and the potential formation of La Niña. Forecasters are concerned that these warmer temperatures could lead to the rapid intensification of storms, potentially resulting in more rapidly developing and stronger hurricanes.
With the El Niño weather pattern subsiding and the likely formation of La Niña during the peak of hurricane season, experts are increasingly confident in their forecasts of an exceptionally high number of storms this year. The combination of these factors is expected to create a robust environment for storm formation and intensification in the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
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